October 22, 2009


I’ve always been an admirer of China. I have also been an admirer of Mao Tse Tung – despite the scandalous (true or untrue) details of his private life – and believe that today’s China, good or bad, is an absolute direct result of his vision. What I have admired the most about China is the way they have been able to pull out millions of people from below poverty, in a matter of a few decades. This feat of China is unmatched in recorded history. What has made them achieve this unbelievable feat is their macroeconomic bottom-up model, wherein they focused on creating purchasing power directly within the poor. This has enabled them to become one of the formidable forces in the world today. They also know that if there is one nation which could pose challenges in the path of Chinese glory, it is India. So some time back, I came across an intriguing article, which generally got overlooked by most. It was reported by almost all mainstream newspapers that a Chinese strategist has contended that China should break India into 20-30 independent states! And this piece got featured in the new edition of the website of the China International Institute for Strategic Studies (CIISS), an influential think tank that advises Beijing on global and strategic issues. What made this article intriguing was the very fact that China, unlike India, is not a democracy where one can write anything howsoever frivolous and still get away with it. China is extremely strict about dissemination of information and when something as serious as this gets featured in a strategic think tank website, it could almost be said for sure that the statement carries an official approval.

What is more worrisome is the fact that the article also states that China should go about doing this with the help of friendly countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. And all of a sudden, this looks like a plausible option going by the kind of relations that India has with four of its immediate neighbours. Furthermore, the article ostensibly suggests that Bangladesh should woo Bengalis in India to form a separate Bengali nation independent of India, with the support of China! All this in just one article, which as I mentioned got featured some couple of months back. What is most shocking is the fact that China, in various ways, has already started taking its recourse towards disintegrating India in its own way. To begin with, it has started issuing separate visas to Indian passport holders from the state of Jammu and Kashmir, projecting that J&K as a state is separate from India. They went on to propagate the same by distributing handouts to visitors of Tibet, especially journalists who were invited by the Chinese government recently.

That’s not all. The perennial dispute with respect to Arunachal Pradesh’s ownership has pushed China to such an extent that in August this year, they stalled a loan from Asian Development Bank to India, which was to be deployed for the development of Arunachal Pradesh. What’s more, in this dispute, Google has been playing its own role: Google Maps in China feature Arunachal Pradesh as a part of China; Google Maps for India feature the state as a part of India; and show it as a disputed territory in the rest of the world. Over and above all this, China now has plans to build a dam across the Brahmaputra to divert some 200 billion cubic meters of water to feed the Yellow river on account of severe water shortage. This in itself has raised significant concerns for the states of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

All in all, China has been moving extremely strategically with a definite objective in mind. In fact, for this audacious thought and various moves of China, no one is to be blamed other than us. With national politics being highly fragmented, India seems to be becoming increasingly vulnerable, at least politically. National politics is so disoriented that it caters not just to regional needs but has also further moved down to cater to caste and class based agendas. Myopic viewpoints and self-centered objectives have created such a disillusion that no one seems to have any vision for the nation. No doubt, the Chinese are extremely astute to realize this and are dreaming of capitalizing on the same.

As it is, while Shivraj Patil was sleeping and changing his dresses, the Maoist Naxalite forces in India spread their wings in a manner that Chidambaram is finding almost impossible to handle despite his apparent strong words. Nothing perhaps is of bigger concern for India’s internal security than the Naxalites who are creating havoc in the areas they rule, not only by the night but increasingly by the day now. And now, the proposed governmental plan of spending Rs. 7,200 crores over the next three years on the poor people of the Naxalite infested region is utterly laughable and shameful. In the first place, Rs. 2,400 crores spent per year means approximately Rs. 1,200 per year, per family, which is as good as nothing. Add to it the fact that 95% of this money will be eaten away by government officials and the realization hits hard that India is doing nothing to tackle this huge problem which the Chinese would love to capitalize upon – and are indeed already capitalizing upon – given the first opportunity, to make their dream come true.

Dividing India into 30 different states is indeed a laughable idea. However, if India doesn’t act fast to tackle its internal threats like Naxalism, things might look drastically different in the near future. India needs to immediately increase its budget for removing poverty amongst the Naxalite infested areas by about 25 times as a first step towards thwarting these dangerous dreams of the Chinese. Simultaneously, it needs to take China absolutely head on in terms of various other Chinese talks, threats and desires. Only that will help India consolidate its position of an equal partner in this region that will dominate world politics in times to come.



simz_aolly said...

Rightly pointed out.

Today India has a choice to protect its territory. Tomorrow it will be delaying the inevitable.

China will not wait until 2020 for India to develop. It is acting now.

When will India realize this?

Technology Journal said...

Sir I mean Mr. Sutanu Guru Sir,was right when he talked about state rowdism, and when states have common enemy, things can get dangerous,

Referring to your previous posts about the Military might of China, India is no where to respond if China gets belligerent.

Time for Indian Military strategists to note such public sentiments being aired in Mainstream media and take up through democratic channels.

Also public sentiments should be delved and perused.

Common Hindu said...

agree with you:

"Dividing India into 30 different states is indeed a laughable idea. However, if India doesn’t act fast to tackle its internal threats like Naxalism, things might look drastically different in the near future."

ashutosh said...

good article sir.

this is the third time I am thinking on what exactly is stopping you joining politics.

Manuj said...

This is an eye opener to the educated people in India. However, this should reach the masses in a simplistic manner.

Manish Vaswani said...

Dear Sir,

The article very nicely depicts the may be upcoming big obstacle for Indian economy.

The point about the way Google took- 'east or west, business way is the best..A.P. in China for Chinese, and in India for Indians' looked fantastic being a management student.

I was just wondering while reading this post- As China did in earlier times, will it really be able to afford going hard way {that too, viz-a-viz India}, whatsoever may be the situation ??
Would'nt it only go for Cold war or subtle ways instead of hard way..??


armageddonsaviour said...

Dividing the nation on basis of language/caste/religion automatically gets neutralized on implementation of Unified Identity Management System of Indian Citizens.
By Unique Identity Authority of India.

So lets focus on getting the Job done as soon as possible.

The future of India will depend a lot on successful implementation of project Unique Identity Authority of India.

It will become impossibly difficult to break such an India with Unique Identity Card Holders just like Green Card holders of America.

National Citizen Cohesion strengthens that way.

Many business Intelligence Processes, G2C, G2G will be obviously, in the future dependent on the core Module.

Improved Reverse Feedback Processing Mechanisms between the Government and Citizens, using Internet is the need of the hour.

And Janta ki Adalat live on TV shows, working in parallel to local courts, for chillad/small petty issues is also needed, to further minimize internal unrest, that in rare cases, can lead to splitting of India.

That automatically cancels the Naxalism Component of National Resource Wastage.


Sundeep said...

Friends I am authorized to upload the actual map depicting the Indian territory on the once disputed borders on Pakistan & China front. Please treat this as a reference & benchmark going forward. Refer to my blog at http://sundeepdange@wordpress.com

anil said...

Dear Arindam,

Its a great incite which you have brought up through your blog.Infact we Indians need to come together even more than we have done in our ancient past.

The enemy is now strong and witty.i would suggest that you put up some dos and dont's for us citizens,which is do-able so that we can ward off such ill/evil designs of the outsiders.



paul said...

Sir, Excellent analysis, I have put up an article in my blog, on the same issue already, with a different point of view.

My blog: kerrypaul-paul.blogspot.com

Sushanta Kar said...

Sir, It's It seems that you are more concerned about the poverty in rural India. I don't think Any government will listen to you. Not Even the Left Government of Bengal. The champions of Poor.It appears that Indian Middle class is more concern about Chinese aggression.But, the history shows that they will happily live here after if China achieve its' objective. Most of the Middle class were happy with British. They were happy with Portuguese and French in Goa and Pondicheri. They were happy with Soviet till late Nineties. it was various groups of Naxlites who opposes Soviet intrusions in India. And Indian middle class hated them then. Even their peaceful protests was silence with Police action. Now they become Pro-American. They will love your Headline, not the suggestion you made. They will live happily under China if they warranty to keep their property and power intact. That's all. Your write ups are positive and enthusiastic. I love to read them. But, .....

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